Research conducted by biologists with The Nature Conservancy (TNC), National Audubon Society (NAS) and the University of Montana suggests that sage-grouse populations could decline drastically due to future oil and gas development in sagebrush and grassland ecosystems. ?Given the current distribution of oil and gas leases, population declines between 7 and 19 percent would be above the current estimated population declines of 45 to 80 percent that already have occurred, notes the Wildlife Management Institute. In addition, the estimated declines do not take into consideration the potential impacts from renewable energy development. However, the research report suggests?that estimated declines could be reduced through proactive efforts to site future oil?and gas development appropriately.

"The case of sage-grouse and oil and gas development in the Intermountain West is a preview of confrontations likely to occur across the globe with profound implications to biodiversity," wrote the report's authors, Holly Copeland (TNC), Kevin Doherty (NAS) and David Naugle (University of Montana). "Incorporating the likelihood of future change into land-use planning can alleviate uncertainty and ultimately make societal adaptation to change more efficient and less costly. Quantifying anticipated future impacts can help to justify proactive protection of places important to biodiversity and to underscore the ecological consequences of failing to do so."

The research report, released in late October, used land-use change build-out scenarios for future oil and gas development across six western states to estimate future impacts on sage-grouse habitat. The technique has been used effectively to estimate the impacts of residential development on landscapes, but had not been applied previously to model the impacts of energy development on species.
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The researchers developed results at the anticipated level of future oil and gas development based on the "20-year reasonable foreseeable development projections" in U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) resource management plans. In addition, they modeled the "unrestrained" development scenario estimating development at its highest level because the BLM has historically been conservative in its estimates within planning documents. Overall, the researchers predicted 2.3 million hectares to be impacted directly by oil and gas development, based on the anticipated scenario, and 5.5 million hectares?10 percent of the study area?under the unrestrained scenario. Most of the impacts anticipated from the build-out scenarios examined in the research would be to sagebrush ecosystems (3.7 million hectares) and grasslands (1.1 million hectares).

To assess the implications to sage-grouse, the researchers averaged the known negative impacts to both abundance and occurrence of grouse caused by energy development in Wyoming. Oil and gas development is known to disturb sage-grouse populations at conventional well spacing densities. Within the models, the researchers predicted a 7 percent decline in sage-grouse at the anticipated level of development and as much as a 19 percent decline in the unrestricted scenario based on loss of habitat and disturbance.?

The authors suggested that preventing the listing of sage-grouse as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act could be accomplished through planning that incorporates avoidance or mitigation strategies. In the case of sage-grouse, 14-19 percent of the study area has high oil and gas development potential but the development rights have not been sold. Development in these areas could be avoided by removing these leases from sale or mandating other special protections by government management agencies. Areas already leased and important for sage-grouse could be considered a priority for lease swaps or buy-backs, where government, non-governmental organizations and other private entities swap land or buy the lease back from the company that bought the development rights. (jas)